Global Liquidity (2026 Outlook)

The simultaneous liquidity expansion by the Fed and PBOC historically benefits Risk Assets and Hard Assets.

1. AI Infrastructure & Power Grids

  • Logic: The shift to AI inference requires massive computing power and grid modernization. This intersects US tech growth with global manufacturing recovery.
  • Top ETFs:
    • SMH: Semiconductors (Nvidia, TSMC)
    • GRID: Smart grid equipment and transformers
    • XLU: Utilities (increasingly valued for data center power supply/nuclear)

2. Industrial Metals (Commodities)

  • Logic: PBOC infrastructure stimulus + Weaker USD = Rally in raw materials, specifically Copper (electrification) and Lithium (EV recovery).
  • Top ETFs:
    • COPX: Copper miners (high leverage to copper prices)
    • LIT: Lithium & Battery tech (high sensitivity to China’s recovery)
    • DBC: Broad commodities (Inflation hedge)

3. Chinese Big Tech

  • Logic: Historically low valuations combined with regulatory easing and direct liquidity injections make this sector a prime target for mean reversion.
  • Top ETFs:
    • KWEB: China Internet giants (Tencent, Alibaba)
    • CQQQ: Broad Chinese technology sector

4. Bitcoin (Liquidity Proxy)

  • Logic: Crypto has the highest correlation with Global M2 (money supply) growth, acting as a “liquidity sponge” and hedge against fiat debasement.
  • Top ETF:
    • IBIT: Spot Bitcoin ETF

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